Drawdown Recovery Calculator (with Win Rate and Expectancy)
Part 1 shows the gain needed to recover a loss and the drawdown from a peak. Part 2 checks whether a strategy's win rate and average win and loss leave anything after many trades. Runs in your browser.
Recover a loss
Gain needed to recover
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Drawdown from peak
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Gain needed from the low
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Win rate and expectancy
Expectancy per trade
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Break-even win rate
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Result over 100 trades
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Formula
Gain needed to recover a loss L = 1 ÷ (1 − L) − 1
Drawdown = (peak − trough) ÷ peak
Expectancy per trade = win rate × average win − (1 − win rate) × average loss
Break-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)
Losses and gains are not symmetric: a 50% loss needs a 100% gain to get back. A strategy is only worth running if its expectancy is positive after fees.
Gain needed to recover a loss
| Loss | Gain needed |
|---|---|
| −10% | +11.1% |
| −20% | +25.0% |
| −30% | +42.9% |
| −50% | +100.0% |
| −75% | +300.0% |
| −90% | +900.0% |
Frequently asked questions
How much do I need to gain to recover a loss?
Gain needed = 1 ÷ (1 − loss) − 1. A 20% loss needs 25%, a 50% loss needs 100% and an 80% loss needs 400%.
How do I calculate drawdown?
Drawdown = (peak − lowest value after the peak) ÷ peak. An account that fell from 10,000 to 7,000 has a 30% drawdown and needs about 42.9% to recover.
How do I calculate trading expectancy and win rate?
Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. With a 40% win rate, average win 200 and average loss 100, expectancy is +20 per trade; the break-even win rate is 100 ÷ 300 = 33.3%.
How we calculate and limits
Arithmetic only. Results from past trades do not guarantee future results; fees and slippage are not included unless already in your averages.